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Lessons from Loveman

31 Mar

One aspect of reading business cases I enjoy is assessing the present tense of the company and reviewing the effects over time. What have the programs or principles reviewed achieved for these companies today?

At the time of Gary Loveman’s Harvard Business Review Best Practice article, Diamonds in the Data Mine, and the Stanford Business School case, both of which were published in 2003, Harrah’s was a $4 billion company with 43,000 employees. In the eight years since, the company has more than doubled via acquisitions. Today, Harrah’s is an almost $9 billion company with 85,000 employees. There’s a slight irony to Loveman’s opening jibes in the article at the mega casinos with the mega malls, as Harrah’s now owns Caesars.

No question Loveman is a brilliant strategist, analyst and marketer. A few nuggets I found especially wise:

  • Evaluating the customer’s worth over time. This would naturally create a huge motivation for marketing, operations, food and beverage and other departments. While the long-term value is probably not bookable from an accounting perspective, internally it could certainly be treated as such.
  • Creating a tiered reward system, and letting customers see what others are getting. This also helps mitigate any negative perceptions about wait times and service. “My check-in line may be slow, but not all service is bad at Harrah’s. Look at how fast that preferred customer line moved.”
  • Playing patterns and data driving the placement of slots on casino floor. This avoids the “tyranny of experts” – the operations guy or the architect who are convinced they “know” what slot placement works best, when really their evidence is nothing more than personal experience and preferences.

I’m a long-time marketer, with experience in advertising, direct mail and web campaigns. Loveman is absolutely correct: Many companies design the marketing strategies first, then adjust the data to suit. In fairness, however, it’s often the lack of a data mine at the outset which leads to this approach. Often, the marketing program is used to build the database — for example, buying a direct-mail list of hypothetical customers, and then tracking response to marketing efforts.

The marketing lesson I’ve adopted from Loveman, along with Pfeffer and Sutton’s Evidence-Based Management:

  • Hypothesize based on your marketing strategy and available data
  • Develop a rule
  • Test data
  • State conclusion
  • Implement program and test again, or adjust hypothesis and test again

Loveman’s data mine is larger now by orders of magnitude. Wonder what diamonds he is discovering now?

Evidence-based management: My No.-1 top hit

29 Mar

Evidence-Based Management, a Harvard Business Review article by the legendary Jeffrey Pfeffer and Bob Sutton, should be enshrined in the B-School Pantheon, if there is such a place. Out of the articles and cases we’ve examined so far, this one tops my “most influential” list.

The business world is full of bluff and bluster. Everywhere from books to blogs, authors, consultants and charlatans are proposing this essential business principle or that. And the average beleaguered manager gamely goes along, seldom questioning whether there is really evidence to support this latest and greatest, and whether the “evidence” presented holds up to scrutiny or is even applicable to his company.

An example from my own experience: Back in 2000, AOL executives wanted to meet with my company’s CEO to pitch an internet advertising package. Normally, no media pitchperson ever met with the CEO – they were immediately routed to the experts in our department. We evaluated the merits of these sorts of pitches day in and day out. But AOL was about to buy Time Warner and was the hottest thing in business at that moment, the Google of its day. The AOL salespeople used this leverage to get a meeting with the CEO, and we ended up buying an expensive package which also happened to be ineffective. This purchase wasn’t made based on the evidence we usually applied to assess proposals, but on two of Pfeffer and Sutton’s six substitutes for evidence: mindless mimicry and hype.

Evidence-based management requires a change of thinking, a critical eye. To become an evidence-based manager, Pfeffer and Sutton suggest four habits:

  • Demand evidence – develop data and metrics to support your decisions
  • Examine logic – “What would have to be true if this idea were going to be effective?”
  • Treat the organization as an unfinished prototype – run trials, tests and experiments
  • Embrace the attitude of wisdom – appreciate how much you don’t know

To illustrate, here’s a great hypothesis about lack of evidence for social media building closer relationships, as posted on HBR last week. Quite honestly, I find Pfeffer and Sutton’s article so rich that even after three readings I am having a hard time cogently parsing it in one meager blog post. I’ll pore over it for years to come.

How learning occurs

29 Mar

The stars have aligned. So have the planets. And it is good.

I’m currently taking two MBA courses, Statistics for Decision Making and Management and Organizational Science. And there is nothing more joyous when there is randomly occurring synergy between the two. Or perhaps it’s not random?

This week, we began hypothesis testing in Statistics. We are formulating our hypotheses, then testing to see if we should accept or reject the null. And what are we reading in Management this week? Good to Great, or Just Good?, an article by Bruce Niendorf and Kristine Beck. Their article uses this very same statistical methodology to examine if there is any evidence that the five management principles identified by Jim Collins in the mega-bestselling business book Good to Great actually produced stellar results.

According to Niendorf and Beck, Collins’ “evidence” doesn’t hold up on multiple levels. First, he used data mining incorrectly. Collins found patterns in the data, but he failed to test his patterns once he found them. Second, he identified an association between the “great” firms and his five principles, but he failed to establish causation. When debunking medical myths on his radio show, the great Dr. Dean Edell explains causation to laypeople as follows: People eat carrots, and people get in car accidents, but that doesn’t mean carrots cause car accidents.

Collins developed the five traits AFTER he examined the companies, rather than developing the traits first and exploring if the companies matched. From that perspective, couldn’t he write the traits any way he wanted to make them “work” for his selected companies?

Niendorf and Beck used the same methodology I used to solve six Statistics homework problems last night: They identified a theory, set up hypotheses, and then sampled, tested and drew conclusions. Learning in action!

The dangers of insularity and the perils of group think

24 Mar

One of the dangers of insularity: It’s always easier to spot it after the fact, or for outsiders to spot it. The people directly afflicted never seem to see it.

A Canadian news media analysis, INDEPTH: IRAQ United States Senate Select Committee on Intelligence: report on pre-Iraq war intelligence, calls up the dangers of insularity.

According to the article, the  U.S. intelligence community suffered from “collective group think” leading up to the Iraq war, causing it to interpret ambiguous evidence as conclusive proof of WMD programs. While making a decision based on sketchy evidence might be acceptable in business from time to time – for example, public relations practitioners sometimes have to respond with little evidence, and physicians often rely heavily on their prior diagnostic experience – it has no place in high-level diplomacy and military strategy.

The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence developed more than 100 conclusions in its report on intelligence failures in Iraq, eight of which are singled out in this news report. Conclusion 5 blames analytic and collection failures on intelligence community managers who did not adequately supervise the work of their analysts and collectors. Geez! If managers won’t challenge the assumptions of employees, who will? This conclusion dovetails nicely with the article we just read on product-development teams: You need skeptics and questioners on your team.

The events behind this article are the basis for the new Matt Damon vehicle Green Zone, which depicts the immediate aftermath of this intelligence failure, when WMDs were nowhere to be found in Iraq. (Sadly, Green Zone is not a great flick, although Damon’s always good. Should we be concerned that the top Google results for Green Zone are for the movie?)

This article reminds me why I want to read Rajiv Chandrasekaran’s Imperial Life in the Emerald City soon, which provides an inside view of life in Baghdad’s Green Zone. I hope we never fail this colossally again.

Fake it ‘til you make it

22 Mar

Too often in life, the knowing-doing gap – as defined by Stanford Business School Professors Jeffrey Pfeffer and Bob Sutton – can be traced to “a basic human propensity: the willingness to let talk substitute for action.”

Then imagine a dysfunctional project team, debating a concept or a product to death. If you lead a team, embrace action instead. Welcome change. If you don’t know exactly what you’re doing, develop a hypothesis, attempt the work, then analyze the outcome. Fake it ‘til you make it.

Strategies of Effective New Product Team Leaders, an article published in the California Management Review by Avan R. Jassawalla and Hemant C. Sashittal, embraces just this approach. While the title seems to indicate narrow applicability to just one group, this article has implications and scope beyond new product development teams. It’s a useful approach to building a variety of cross-functional teams, including those to improve sales revenue, such as in a service organization, or improving patient care, or developing new processes. Heck, it’s even valuable if one ignores the cross-functional premise and applies it to managing a department-level team.

According to Jassawalla and Sashittal, effective new product team leaders formulate five objectives and strategies:

  1. Ensure commitment
  2. Build information-intensive environments
  3. Play facilitator
  4. Focus on human interaction
  5. Focus on learning

The effective team leader can then best apply these strategies in a culture which encourages change and innovation with the full support of senior management. Mistakes must be welcomed in interest of furthering learning – to stretch the notion of what’s possible.

One aspect of teams not mentioned in the article: What is the optimum team size? No data or reference is included. Presumably, a too-large team might be unwieldy, and there would be a less secure bond among members. Too small a team might become insular, or suffer from a lack of diversity in opinions and options.

A second aspect not mentioned: What is the optimum time from team formation to maximum effectiveness? According to article, effective leaders focus on increasing members’ personal and emotional commitment to the team. This dynamic is a function of trust level, which is built over time.

As this article implies, the work of a team leader is extensive, and requires a significant commitment beyond day-to-day operational activities. An effective leader develops project plans, schedules meetings and puts out fires, among other things, and does it quietly, without any undue attention or fanfare. It’s team facilitator as servant leader.

Case Study – Arrow Electronics

8 Mar

Confidential to Betsy Levine, branch general manager at Arrow Electronics circa 1997: Quit your job.

I’m sure by now she already has. Betsy’s management performance review is one of five exhibits evaluated in Harvard Business School Case Study 9-800-290, Compensation and Performance Evaluation at Arrow Electronics.

Arrow’s industry has dramatic turnover, up to 25 percent annually. Its employees, and those of its competitors, feel no attachment to any particular company. When these companies need to build market share quickly due to pressure from suppliers, they do it by stealing customers from another distributor via job-hopping salespeople. Even the company’s 43 branch general managers only have an average life span of three to four years.

The main reason salespeople jump ship: pay. There appears to be nothing particularly compelling about Arrow’s culture – in fact, its culture is “no one stays.”

Betsy’s drama began when Steve Kaufman, Arrow’s CEO, recognized that “problems” existed with the company’s Employee Performance Review system, or EPR. No one was happy with the three-year-old system: not employees, not managers, and certainly not Kaufman.

Kaufman was in a state of shock that “no one” in his entire organization received a 1 or 2 (the lowest scores) in one of the seven performance areas. As he put it, “that can’t be right.” Unfortunately, that’s the wrong mindset. He wonders why it is so difficult to get his managers to evaluate their employees “accurately.”

Well, because they can’t. An employee evaluation such as Arrow’s, which ranked employees on measures such as judgment and initiative, is highly subjective. What’s accurate to one manager is inaccurate to another.

Kaufman may suffer from his own educational background and experience: He’s a quant*. He has an engineering degree from MIT, an MBA from Harvard, and 11 years with McKinsey as a strategy consultant. He’s completely overlooking the impact of emotion and subjective judgment on the managers’ assessments of their employees.

Kaufman even decreed that “Every employee must receive a 2 on at least one of their seven areas of evaluation. No exceptions.” This silly, arbitrary assessment of course rubbed his managers the wrong way, let alone the employees. Part of Kaufman’s desire was to determine who was really worthy of promotion. But determining leadership potential from a subjective rating alone is faulty. What if the employee’s manager feels threatened? Even more important: What about the employee’s intrinsic desire to lead? Wouldn’t it be better to ask people if they want to lead and then assess their potential and provide training?

The CEO wants to “upgrade” his team — rather a loaded word, don’t you think? Any new hires need to be “better than the average of the existing team,” so that’s why he needs to measure performance “accurately” via the EPR. Well, wouldn’t the most expedient way of increasing the average be to increase the performance of every individual member of the team, rather than hire one or two better-than-average superstars?

So in addition to the written case, we’re given five written Management Performance Reviews to evaluate as exhibits. Three of them are extremely sparse and vague – one says to “develop some continued educational goals.” About what? Another refers to “developing direct reports” under position-specific knowledge and skills. How is that position-specific knowledge for a manager? Three of them were extremely poorly written, including a reference to a “pier group.”

And then we get to Betsy’s review. Poor Betsy. She exemplifies the problem Kaufman wants to solve: She’s a newly promoted branch general manager in her role for less than a year – exactly the person who’s likely to leave in another year or two, and exactly who Arrow wants to retain in order to grow its leadership team in years to come.

So what kind of review does she get? A coal raking. A mean-spirited, highly critical rant that at the same time acknowledges that there is “little to no turnover” in Betsy’s area – a key metric Arrow needs to improve. And that Betsy goes out of her way to help others in the company, which she’s dinged for. And that her customers, both internal and external, are satifisied. She even gets downgraded for the opinions of those who are not her direct reports! Her evaluator goes off topic on many of the questions, filling in what he wants to cover when he (I’m assuming it’s a “he”) is supposed to be addressing something else entirely.

And that underlies the fundamental problem with Kaufman’s EPR process: the pre-fab structure used to evaluate employees doesn’t focus on what’s really important to the company, just what’s most important for filling out the form. And the variation in the narratives – some are inscrutable, misspelled one-sentence responses, while Betsy gets a three-page diatribe – points to a flawed process poorly executed.

Kaufman made a fundamental error: The “problems” are not with the EPR. The problems are with the system as a whole.

* Quant: A person who works in finance using numerical or quantitative techniques.

Case Study – Sins of Commission

8 Mar

Jeffrey Pfeffer is right about the essential issue with performance-based incentive programs: “Most companies have production processes and objectives that are way too complicated to be adequately captured in any incentive scheme.” As Pfeffer points out, the answer to complicated production processes is to make performance measurement more complicated. However, the more complex it gets, the less likelihood it has of guiding behavior.

I used to receive an incentive payout based in part on the overall patient satisfaction score for a 528-bed acute-care hospital. For a hospital with more than 20,000 annual admissions, there are literally millions of individual interactions and transactions between patients and employees that would eventually comprise the score, including how the survey itself was conducted and the response rate. Patient satisfaction scores are based on a huge range of variables, everything from how the patient was greeted at the front desk to whether the food was hot on Tuesday. Weeks after the fact, the patient will get a bill, which will also affect how he or she perceives the experience. And of course, even the physician can’t guarantee the patient will get the cure he or she seeks.

While it’s great in concept to make us “severally liable” as a team, from a practical standpoint no one individual has a significant effect on this score. Employees are not guided in their moment-by-moment choices by what’s going to be on their annual review. They’re guided by what they’ve been trained to do, what their culture expects them to do, what their peers do, guidance from their supervisor and their own judgment and experience.

Am I saying this measure, patient satisfaction, isn’t important? Of course not – it’s crucial. But what really guides our behavior as employees? Broader internal forces, such as organizational culture and behavioral modeling by superiors and peers, are more likely to have impact on the day-to-day actions of employees than a once-a-year measurement process.

So why is it there? It’s the path of least resistance. It’s easier for leaders to spend one week or so tweaking the performance measure process for the year than it is work daily to change organizational culture, to really look at how to improve the work environment and communication. Managing requires developing a clear vision and goals, communicating that vision to employees, and repeating those goals over and over again. The ideal is for employees to have such clarity of mission and purpose that it guides them almost intuitively to make decisions and take actions which lead directly to achieving the business goals. They know the patient wants to be greeted warmly at the front desk, receive hot food and an easy-to-understand invoice, and they act accordingly.

“Sins of Commission: Be Careful What You Pay For, You May Get It” is excerpted from Stanford Management Professor Jeffrey Pfeffer’s book What Were They Thinking? Unconventional Wisdom about Management.

How to guide employee performance

3 Mar

Sometimes, our BADM 720 readings are joy. Pure bliss. Get Rid of the Performance Review! is one of those proverbial breath-of-fresh-air pieces. In this Wall Street Journal article, Samuel Culbert, a professor of management at the UCLA Anderson School of Management, outlines seven highly valid reasons why performance reviews are “a negative to corporate performance, an obstacle to straight-talk relationships, and a prime cause of low morale at work.”

One of the seven flaws Culbert cites is the difference in approach between the evaluator, the supervisor, and the evaluated, the employee. The employee thinks she is there to negotiate her pay. The employer is there to discuss performance and how it can be improved.

And as Culbert point out, that’s a farce. In most larger organizations, raises are limited to a predetermined range determined by senior management or the board, usually 2-5% annually at most companies. It doesn’t matter how fabulous your performance is — you’re never going to get more unless you get a promotion. Your employer is never going to raise your salary outside of your market range anyway. And if your organization is in financial trouble, the annual raise might be 0% across the board.

Culbert has many other strong points about the weaknesses in most performance review systems — that objectivity is subjective, and teamwork is disrupted, among others. However, what I responded to most strongly was Culbert’s suggested alternative.

He recommends tw0-sided, reciprocally accountable performance previews, where a boss can guide, coach, tutor and otherwise provide oversight — what a boss is supposed to do, after all. Rather than dwelling on what has already taken place and can’t be fixed, as in the performance review, the preview creates discussions about how boss and employee can work together more effectively as a team, separately from any discussion of pay.

I’ve experienced it,  and I know it works. I consider myself fortunate to have had a great boss, Lynn Atcheson, for 13 years, a boss who also happened to be an amazing leader. Twice a year, unconnected to our corporate-mandated performance review, she met with each member of her team to answer these six questions, what I now call The Lynn Review Questions:

  1. How are you doing?
  2. What are you learning?
  3. What are your goals?
  4. How can I help you?
  5. Please provide any recommendations how I might improve my leadership style.
  6. Provide any recommendations on how we can improve our department.

It’s been nine years since I worked for her, and I still have the questions! I later went on to use the questions with my own direct reports. When she first implemented it, we employees rolled our eyes about it a bit  — “Oh, it’s time for the meeting” — but actually, the formalized way in which she approached it made it both more comprehensive and significant. And because she had already built trust in her day-to-day leadership behaviors and actions, we could have truthful, meaningful, impactful conversations.

Case Study – SAS Institute

1 Mar

The anti-Nordstrom

Case Study HR6 from the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University asks us to review SAS Institute’s need to recruit a talented work force in order to build and maintain intellectual capital.

Could it, and should it, maintain its unique approach to pay and practices, and could it reasonably expect to thrive?

To answer that question, we need to determine if SAS succeeded because of its management practices. Or is its success simply due to being in the right place at the right time?

While the former certainly plays a role, I think there’s a bigger reason for the company’s success, and the reason WHY its management practices exist in the first place: It’s privately held.

Its need to please no one but its relatively few owners meant it could create a “benevolent dictator” such as Jim Goodnight who then creates benevolent employee policies and practices. With an internal locus of control, the company can eschew long-term planning and create a truly customer-driven development process. Its licensing structure, which forces the company to work to KEEP customers yet trades off margins in the short term for greater market penetration, would be less successful in a company focused on the drive for quarterly earnings. Although SAS doesn’t have a long-term planning function — wisely, since its industry changes so rapidly — the company certainly takes a long-term view in how it treats employees and their contributions to its success.

SAS has no grand policies about how to treat employees, just four basis principles, one of which emphasizes intrinsic motivation. The company aims to “deemphasize financial incentives as source of motivation.”

It’s really the anti-Nordstrom: even its salespeople are not commissioned. According to SAS leadership, sales commissions do not encourage an orientation toward taking care of the customer or building long-term relationships. Its HR leader commented “People are constantly finding holes in incentive plans.” Yes, no kidding. Just look at Nordstrom!

Does this kind of compensation system make it difficult to attract and retain talent? No – it eliminates the “sharks” and encourages people who really want to serve the company and its customers. A commission-oriented, extrinsic motivation structure means employees will move as soon as that motivation looks better somewhere else.

Can SAS succeed without the stock options common in Silicon Valley? Resoundingly yes. Everyone wants off the treadmill, to some degree. SAS counts on the “value of a return compounded annually” – getting its employees to stay for the long term. It’s a better guarantee for the employee than stock options, which are inherently risky. Yeah, you might get rich – but then again, you might not. Best of all, when SAS employees develop new ideas they will probably stay rather than forming their own startup, keeping intellectual capital within the company.

There’s no question that SAS will continue to thrive with these practices. In fact, they are thriving. In 2010, 12 years after the case study was published, SAS was named the No.-1 company on the Fortune 100 Best Companies to Work For 2010 list – after appearing on the list every year since its inception.

Case Study — Nordstrom: Dissension in the Ranks?

1 Mar

The anti-SAS

Harvard Business School Case Study 9-191-002 questions the compensation policies and practices of Nordstrom, which are inextricably linked with its high-touch customer-service culture. After rapid expansion in 1980s, this publicly traded retailer was lambasted by labor unions and the news media for its practices, which allegedly led to employees underreporting actual work hours in the interest of keeping both their commissions high and the best floor schedules, as well as currying favor with management.

Nordstrom, which started out as a family business in Seattle, grew rapidly in the 1980s. Its sales force grew by six times in less than 10 years as the company expanded geographically beyond its home base of Washington and Oregon.

Its reputation for “superior customer service” is considered a strong competitive advantage and source of its financial success, including sales per square foot double the industry average. However, that’s a strategy that can be copied readily. “Superior customer service” is only part of the equation in retail: No matter how good your service, if you don’t stock the clothes and shoes customers want to buy, they’ll shop elsewhere.

From the case study, there is little evidence of a strong management emphasis on creating a “great culture,” as at Southwest Airlines.  Although publicly held, the Nordstrom family owns half of the company. The family seems a little entitled, as witness this comment from Jim Nordstrom: “People don’t put in enough hours during the busy time.” What?

Nordstrom’s caliber of salesclerks seemed to withstand the pressures of rapid growth, but apparently it didn’t have a strong hiring screening program or training, as at Southwest. Most importantly, it didn’t seem to really care about treating employees well and backing it up with fair rewards.

Nordstrom’s policy was to “to pay employees for time,” but its practice was something different. The service behavior for Nordies is almost codified, such as the expectation that they make home deliveries. Compensation is driven by sales per hour, so if an employee does any work that’s not ringing up the register, he or she is effectively penalized. Why can’t they just put those activities against non-selling time? Or adjust the commission structure? Its culture made it clear what the “right” thing to do is, yet without breaking any laws.

A management memo defined tasks such as writing thank yous or attending a meeting “selling.” But writing a customer a thank you is no guarantee that customer will make next purchase from YOU! That should not be classified as a selling activity, but rather as a post-sale activity. The company should pay for that, not the employee, since the company overall is most likely to benefit from the next purchase. [Bruce Nordstrom compared this non-selling time to an advertising salesperson, or an insurance salesperson. But there’s a big difference in the business models: The next sale will probably go DIRECTLY to that person in those businesses.]

There’s no question that the United Food and Commercial Workers union, which represented about 5 percent of employees, was behind a lot of the complaints. It reported Nordstrom’s practices to the National Labor Relations Board and the Washington Department of Labor and Industries. It clearly wanted to grow its membership by representing a greater percentage of employees, and what better way to rally them by telling them their employer is a cheat?

Although not every employee is unhappy – in fact, a fair number seemed to have stood by the company, and they later ousted the union – at the root there is something inherently wrong with the company’s compensation structure. The old saw “Where there’s smoke, there’s fire” lends credence to this case study.

However, the union’s claims were not entirely true, and this is why Nordstrom in essence prevailed: Employees DO get compensated for selling work. It’s just that the underlying system discourages reporting the hours. The irony: If there were no union, would any of this have come to light?

When Denny Flanagan performs outrageously for United, he’s probably not being compensated. However, he’s an outlier within the company – no one is expecting him to do that, or marking him down if he doesn’t. At Nordstrom, however, everyone is expected to perform outrageously, but unlike Southwest, the environment seems punitive, rather than fun.

Nordstrom tells employees, “This is your business, treat it like your business.” No, it’s not their business – they don’t get the profits! The family and shareholders get the profits.

In the end, the Department of Labor and Industries order that Nordstrom compensate employees was rather silly, because it did not address the systemic and cultural issues at the company. What will change? Yeah, now employees have a written time sheet, but will they use it?

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